학술논문

What are the chances of that? a primer on probability and poisson processes for earthing designers
Document Type
Conference
Source
2016 Down to Earth Conference (DTEC) Down to Earth Conference (DTEC). :1-6 Sep, 2016
Subject
Power, Energy and Industry Applications
Random variables
Grounding
Bayes methods
Probability distribution
Risk management
Probability density function
Risk
earthing
grounding
safety
coincidence
Bayesian statistics
frequentist statistics
Language
Abstract
Earthing design methodologies based around risk are growing in importance as they provide a better way to allocate limited resources and funding. Appropriate application of these processes requires the earthing engineer to have a sound comprehension of probability theory, upon which the processes are built. This paper reviews the basics of Poisson processes and the statistical methods and probability distributions used in their analysis. Examples and explanations are provided of how Poisson processes are used in the context of earthing, including lightning protection, to model the occurrence of power system faults and interactions with the general public. Particular attention is given to some counter-intuitive aspects that may lead a designer, ignorant of the subtleties of probability theory, to draw incorrect conclusions, potentially resulting in over-engineering or even irresponsible designs.