학술논문
Probability Characterization of Wind Farm Power Output and Impact on System Reliability
Document Type
Conference
Source
2018 IEEE International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 2018 IEEE International Conference on. :1-6 Jun, 2018
Subject
Language
Abstract
This paper presents a computational procedure for the generated power probability distribution function (pdf) of a wind farm (WF) consisting of $n$ wind turbine systems (WTSs). The pdf is computed using three alternate methods: (1) analytical method, (2) non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation, and (3) sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The methods are demonstrated on an example WF system consisting of 10 WTSs. Historical wind speed data from a specific location, and an assumed WTS reliability model are utilized. The pdf of the example WF system is computed by the three methods and the results are compared. All methods yield comparable results and the small differences are quantified. The analytical method is more complex but the most efficient. As an application, the computed pdfs of WF are integrated into the probabilistic production costing (PPC) method for assessing the reliability of a system comprising a WF or multiple WFs.