학술논문
Monthly Peak-load Demand Forecasting for Sulaimany Governorate Using SARIMA.
Document Type
Conference
Author
Source
2006 IEEE/PES Transmission & Distribution Conference and Exposition: Latin America Transmission & Distribution Conference and Exposition: Latin America, 2006. TDC '06. IEEE/PES. :1-5 Aug, 2006
Subject
Language
Abstract
This paper presents a monthly peak-load demand forecasting for Sulaimany Governorate (located in northern Iraq) for the year 2006, using the most widely used traditional method, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). We have found that adequate SARIMA model is (1,1,0)(0,2,1)12, the performance of the model is tested on the actual historical monthly demand of the Governorate for the year 2005, The results obtained shows a very good estimation of the load. That is, the mean absolute percentage error MAPE is 1.235.