학술논문
Research on New Energy Probability Prediction Technology Based on Ensemble Weather Forecast
Document Type
Conference
Author
Source
2022 12th International Conference on Power and Energy Systems (ICPES) Power and Energy Systems (ICPES), 2022 12th International Conference on. :886-889 Dec, 2022
Subject
Language
ISSN
2767-732X
Abstract
In this paper, a ensemble weather forecasting method based on multi-initial value, multi-mode and multi-physical process, with multiple algorithm perturbations, and BMA+EMOS statistical modeling is proposed. Based on the ensemble weather forecasting method, a new energy probabilistic power prediction method combining taboo algorithm and BP neural network algorithm is proposed. Through the design example analysis, the proposed method can effectively reduce the prediction bias, reduce the upper and lower limit bandwidth of probability prediction by 25%, and overcome the power distribution fat tail and multimodal anomalies, making the power prediction results more stable and accurate.