부산대학교 도서관

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) is a valuable tool for understanding infectious disease propagation. This study presents a hybrid ABMS approach to explore the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases (Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya) in Bello, Colombia, incorporating geospatial characteristics. The model was developed with specific assumptions to validate its alignment with theoretical behavior. Our results demonstrate the temperature’s significant impact on disease spread. Particularly, Chikungunya exhibits distinct behavior compared to Dengue and Zika. While major infection peaks occur early in the simulation, subsequent spread diminishes due to the absence of reinfection considerations. This research represents an early stage of a larger project, laying the groundwork for future research to address computational challenges, enabling statistical analysis with multiple runs, and enhancing the model’s realism with seasonal temperature variations and geographical distributions. These findings will provide valuable insights for policymakers and disease control strategies in Colombia.