학술논문
Blueprint to hepatitis B elimination in China: A modelling analysis of clinical strategies
Document Type
article
Author
Source
JHEP Reports, Vol 5, Iss 10, Pp 100833- (2023)
Subject
Language
English
ISSN
2589-5559
Abstract
Background & Aims: Globally, one-third of individuals infected with HBV live in China. Eliminating HBV in China would therefore be paramount in achieving the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) targets of viral hepatitis elimination as a worldwide public health threat. Methods: We constructed a dynamic HBV transmission model in China, structured by age and sex. We calibrated the model by HBsAg prevalence, acute HBV incidence, and nationally reported HBV-related cancer mortality. We investigated seven intervention scenarios (A–G) based on assumptions in diagnostic, linkage-to-care, and treatment coverages in achieving the WHO’s HBV elimination goals. Results: With the status quo, HBsAg prevalence among children 1–4 years would reduce to 0.09% (95% CI 0.09–0.10%) by 2025; acute HBV incidence would drop to