학술논문
Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation
Document Type
article
Author
Aled Jones; Sarah Bridle; Katherine Denby; Riaz Bhunnoo; Daniel Morton; Lucy Stanbrough; Barnaby Coupe; Vanessa Pilley; Tim Benton; Pete Falloon; Tom K. Matthews; Saher Hasnain; John S. Heslop-Harrison; Simon Beard; Julie Pierce; Jules Pretty; Monika Zurek; Alexandra Johnstone; Pete Smith; Neil Gunn; Molly Watson; Edward Pope; Asaf Tzachor; Caitlin Douglas; Christian Reynolds; Neil Ward; Jez Fredenburgh; Clare Pettinger; Tom Quested; Juan Pablo Cordero; Clive Mitchell; Carrie Bewick; Cameron Brown; Christopher Brown; Paul J. Burgess; Andy Challinor; Andrew Cottrell; Thomas Crocker; Thomas George; Charles J. Godfray; Rosie S. Hails; John Ingram; Tim Lang; Fergus Lyon; Simon Lusher; Tom MacMillan; Sue Newton; Simon Pearson; Sue Pritchard; Dale Sanders; Angelina Sanderson Bellamy; Megan Steven; Alastair Trickett; Andrew Voysey; Christine Watson; Darren Whitby; Kerry Whiteside
Source
Sustainability, Vol 15, Iss 20, p 14783 (2023)
Subject
Language
English
ISSN
2071-1050
Abstract
We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.