학술논문

Geophysical Responses to an Environmentally‐Boosted Volcanic Unrest
Document Type
article
Source
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 5, Pp n/a-n/a (2024)
Subject
empirical orthogonal functions
global positioning system
volcanic unrest
carbon dioxide flux
volcanic deformation
environmental forcing
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
Language
English
ISSN
1944-8007
0094-8276
Abstract
Abstract The spatiotemporal relationship between geophysical, environmental, and geochemical responses during volcanic unrest is essentially unknown, making their joint use and interpretation for eruption forecasting challenging. Here, Empirical Orthogonal Functions analysis applied to GPS data allows the separation of the dominant deep‐sourced inflation from environmentally controlled signals associated with extension at Campi Flegrei caldera. This separation bridges the gap between deformation, seismic and geochemical responses, clarifying the processes underlying the ongoing volcanic unrest. Persistent meteoric forcing during the 2017–2018 hydrological year changed the decadal trend of seismic energy and secondary deformation components, pairing their spatial patterns. The result was a block in the carbon dioxide released in 2018 at Solfatara, the primary stress‐release valve at the caldera. The subsequent overpressure weakened the fractured eastern caldera, opening pathways for deep, hot materials to reach the surface. Our results give insight into how environmental forcing can favor volcanic unrest in pressurized calderas.