부산대학교 도서관

Ramalingam Shanmugam,1 Gerald Ledlow,2 Karan P Singh3 1School of Health Administration, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX, 78666, USA; 2Department of Healthcare Policy, Economics and Management, School of Community and Rural Health, The University of Texas at Tyler Health Science Center, Tyler, TX, 11937, USA; 3Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, The University of Texas at Tyler Health Science Center, Tyler, TX, 11937, USACorrespondence: Karan P Singh Email karan.singh@uthct.eduAbstract: This article provides a thorough explanation of methods and theoretical concepts to detect infectivity of COVID-19. The concept of heterogeneity is discussed and its impacts on COVID-19 pandemics are explored. Observable heterogeneity is distinguished from non-observable heterogeneity. The data support the concepts of heterogeneity and the methods to extract and interpret the data evidence for the conclusions in this paper. Heterogeneity among the vulnerable to COVID-19 is a significant factor in the contagion of COVID-19, as demonstrated with incidence rates using data of a Diamond Princess cruise ship. Given the nature of the pandemic, its heterogeneity with different social norms, pre- and post-voyage quick testing procedures ought to become the new standard for cruise ship passengers and crew. With quick testing, identification of those infected and thus, not allowing to embark on a cruise or quarantine those disembarking, and other mitigation strategies, the popular cruise adventure could become norm for safe voyage. The novel method used in this article adds valuable insight in the modeling of disease and specifically, the COVID-19 virus.Keywords: observed heterogeneity, non-observed heterogeneity, over dispersion, under dispersion, Poisson distribution, binomial distribution, Tango’s test statistics