학술논문

Nationwide projections of heat- and cold-related mortality impacts under various climate change and population development scenarios in Switzerland
Document Type
article
Source
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 9, p 094010 (2023)
Subject
shared socioeconomic pathways
representative concentration pathways
mortality
nationwide analysis
distributed lag non-linear model
heat and cold
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
TD1-1066
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Science
Physics
QC1-999
Language
English
ISSN
1748-9326
Abstract
Climate change and progressive population development (i.e., ageing and changes in population size) are altering the temporal patterns of temperature-related mortality in Switzerland. However, limited evidence exists on how current trends in heat- and cold-related mortality would evolve in future decades under composite scenarios of global warming and population development. Moreover, the contribution of these drivers to future mortality impacts is not well-understood. Therefore, we aimed to project heat- and cold-related mortality in Switzerland under various combinations of emission and population development scenarios and to disentangle the contribution of each of these two drivers using high-resolution mortality and temperature data. We combined age-specific (