부산대학교 도서관

Rationale. The congenital malformations are the important indicator of the environmental condition, and the anthropogenic pollution of the atmosphere effects strongly the incidence of malformations in the newborns. Purpose of the Study. It is the study of the cause-and-effect relationship between the incidence of malformations in newborns and anthropogenic atmospheric pollutants using the correlation and variance methods, and the development of the mathematical models to predict the formation of the congenital malformations depending on the specific pollutants. Material and methods. The correlation and variance methods were used to study the relationships of the main anthropogenic atmospheric pollutants with the incidence of the congenital malformations in all newborns in Belgorod city in 2000–2015. The predictive models were developed based on the regression method. Results. The most effect of the excess of the maximum allowable average daily concentrations of ammonia and carbon monoxide in the atmosphere on the prevalence of the congenital malformations of various systems and organs was determined with 11 reliable correlations with the congenital malformations studied and those in general. According to the results of the analysis of variance, the maximum level of the combined effect of the anthropogenic air pollutants was revealed for the congenital malformations of the musculoskeletal system (95.69%), face and neck (94.66%), central nervous system (92.31%), digestive system (93.76%). Conclusion. The regression models created at the level required assure the prediction of the various forms of the congenital malformations depending on the anthropogenic pollutants.