학술논문
Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP)
Document Type
article
Author
Sainan Sun; Frank Pattyn; Erika G. Simon; Torsten Albrecht; Stephen Cornford; Reinhard Calov; Christophe Dumas; Fabien Gillet-Chaulet; Heiko Goelzer; Nicholas R. Golledge; Ralf Greve; Matthew J. Hoffman; Angelika Humbert; Elise Kazmierczak; Thomas Kleiner; Gunter R. Leguy; William H. Lipscomb; Daniel Martin; Mathieu Morlighem; Sophie Nowicki; David Pollard; Stephen Price; Aurélien Quiquet; Hélène Seroussi; Tanja Schlemm; Johannes Sutter; Roderik S. W. van de Wal; Ricarda Winkelmann; Tong Zhang
Source
Journal of Glaciology, Vol 66, Pp 891-904 (2020)
Subject
Language
English
ISSN
0022-1430
1727-5652
1727-5652
Abstract
Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.