학술논문
Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years
Document Type
article
Author
Amanda C. Perofsky; Chelsea L. Hansen; Roy Burstein; Shanda Boyle; Robin Prentice; Cooper Marshall; David Reinhart; Ben Capodanno; Melissa Truong; Kristen Schwabe-Fry; Kayla Kuchta; Brian Pfau; Zack Acker; Jover Lee; Thomas R. Sibley; Evan McDermot; Leslie Rodriguez-Salas; Jeremy Stone; Luis Gamboa; Peter D. Han; Amanda Adler; Alpana Waghmare; Michael L. Jackson; Michael Famulare; Jay Shendure; Trevor Bedford; Helen Y. Chu; Janet A. Englund; Lea M. Starita; Cécile Viboud
Source
Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-17 (2024)
Subject
Language
English
ISSN
2041-1723
Abstract
Abstract Many studies have used mobile device location data to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, yet relationships between mobility behavior and endemic respiratory pathogens are less understood. We studied the effects of population mobility on the transmission of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle over a 4-year period, 2018-2022. Before 2020, visits to schools and daycares, within-city mixing, and visitor inflow preceded or coincided with seasonal outbreaks of endemic viruses. Pathogen circulation dropped substantially after the initiation of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in March 2020. During this period, mobility was a positive, leading indicator of transmission of all endemic viruses and lagging and negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 activity. Mobility was briefly predictive of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when restrictions relaxed but associations weakened in subsequent waves. The rebound of endemic viruses was heterogeneously timed but exhibited stronger, longer-lasting relationships with mobility than SARS-CoV-2. Overall, mobility is most predictive of respiratory virus transmission during periods of dramatic behavioral change and at the beginning of epidemic waves.