부산대학교 도서관

This study deals with land use and land cover changes for a 33 years period. We assessed these changes for eight land cover classes in the south of Benin by using an integrated multi-temporal analysis using three Landsat images (1972 Landsat MSS, 1986 Landsat TM and 2005 Landsat ETM+). Three scenarios for the future were simulated using a first-order Markovian model based on annual probability matrices. The contribution of tree plantations to compensate forest loss was assessed. The results show a strong loss of forest and savanna, mainly due to increased agricultural land. Natural woody vegetation ("forest", "wooded savanna" and "tree and shrub savanna") will seriously decrease by 2025 due to the expansion of agricultural activities and the increase of settlements. Tree plantations are expected to double by 2025, but they will not compensate for the loss of natural woody vegetation cover. Consequently, we assist to a continuing woody vegetation area decrease. Policies regarding reforestation and forest conservation must be initiated to reverse the currently projected tendencies.