학술논문
基于四元驱动的非平稳水文干旱评估方法 / A non-stationary hydrological drought assessment method based on four-source driven
Document Type
Academic Journal
Author
崔豪; 江善虎; 任立良; 朱永卫; 杜树平; 严登华; CUI Hao; JIANG Shanhu; REN Liliang; ZHU Yongwei; DU Shuping; YAN Denghua
Source
水资源保护 / Water Resources Protection. 40(1):71-78
Subject
Language
Chinese
ISSN
1004-6933
Abstract
为了科学评估自然-社会系统影响下非平稳水文干旱,考虑气候变化(降水、气温)和人类活动(取用水、水库)四元要素的影响,通过基于四元驱动的GAMLSS模型构建非平稳标准化径流指数(NSRI),提出了基于四元驱动的非平稳水文干旱评估方法.黄河流域非平稳水文干旱实例评估结果表明:黄河流域花园口站径流序列呈现出明显的非平稳特征,径流量 1961-2020 年发生显著下降,并在1990 年发生突变;基于四元驱动的非平稳水文干旱评估方法能够更好地对径流数据进行非平稳概率分布拟合;对于历史干旱事件的识别,NSRI识别的干旱过程与实际更加接近,NSRI比标准化径流指数(SRI)识别效果更好,可以更好地反映变化环境下的水文干旱演变趋势.
To scientifically evaluate non-stationary hydrological drought under the influence of the natural-social system,taking the impact of climate change(precipitation,temperature)and human activities(water intake,reservoirs)into consideration,a non-stationary standardized runoff index(NSRI)was constructed based on the generalized additive model for location scale and shape(GAMLSS)of four-source driven,and a non-stationary hydrological drought assessment method based on four-source driven was proposed.The evaluation results of non-stationary hydrological drought cases in the Yellow River Basin indicate that the runoff sequence at Huayuankou Station in the Yellow River Basin exhibits obvious non-stationary characteristics,with a significant decrease in runoff from 1961 to 2020 and a sudden change in 1990.The non-stationary hydrological drought assessment method based on four-source driven can better fit the non-stationary probability distribution of the runoff data.As for the identification of historical drought events,the drought process identified by NSRI is closer to reality.NSRI achieves better performance than the standardized runoff index(SRI)when identifying drought events,and can better reflect the evolution trend of hydrological drought in changing environments.
To scientifically evaluate non-stationary hydrological drought under the influence of the natural-social system,taking the impact of climate change(precipitation,temperature)and human activities(water intake,reservoirs)into consideration,a non-stationary standardized runoff index(NSRI)was constructed based on the generalized additive model for location scale and shape(GAMLSS)of four-source driven,and a non-stationary hydrological drought assessment method based on four-source driven was proposed.The evaluation results of non-stationary hydrological drought cases in the Yellow River Basin indicate that the runoff sequence at Huayuankou Station in the Yellow River Basin exhibits obvious non-stationary characteristics,with a significant decrease in runoff from 1961 to 2020 and a sudden change in 1990.The non-stationary hydrological drought assessment method based on four-source driven can better fit the non-stationary probability distribution of the runoff data.As for the identification of historical drought events,the drought process identified by NSRI is closer to reality.NSRI achieves better performance than the standardized runoff index(SRI)when identifying drought events,and can better reflect the evolution trend of hydrological drought in changing environments.