학술논문
我国护理人力资源发展及预测研究 / Study on Development and Prediction of Nursing Human Resource in China
Document Type
Academic Journal
Author
Source
医院管理论坛 / Hospital Management Forum. 40(12):14-17
Subject
Language
Chinese
ISSN
1671-9069
Abstract
目的 预测我国未来每千人口注册护士数,医护比等指标,为满足群众和社会护理服务需求提供参考.方法 根据国家统计局官网 1980-2022 年注册护士、执业(助理)医师和人口数据,运用多种时间序列分析模型对既往数据进行拟合,选择适宜模型对 2023-2030 年我国护理及发展相关指标进行预测.结果 到 2030 年,注册护士数将达到 690.46 万人,每千人注册护士数达 4.91 人,医护比将达 1∶1.47.结论 未来我国护理人力资源将持续增加,需要进一步加强对护理人力资源的管理,不断提高护理人员的专业水平和工作积极性,为人民群众提供更加优质的护理服务.
Objective To predict the number of registered nurses per thousand population,the ratio of doctors and nurses and other indicators in China in the future so as to provide reference for meeting the needs of the masses and social nursing services.Methods According to the data of registered nurses,practicing(assistant)physicians and population from 1980 to 2022 on the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics,a variety of time series analysis models were used to fit the previous data,and appropriate models were selected to predict the relevant indicators of nursing and its development in China from 2023 to 2030.Results By 2030,the number of registered nurses will reach 6.9046 million,or 4.91 per 1,000 people,and the ratio of physicians and nurses will reach 1∶1.47.Conclusion In the future,China's nursing human resources will continue to increase,it is necessary to further strengthen the management of nursing human resources,and constantly improve the professional level and work enthusiasm of nursing staffs,so as to provide more high-quality nursing services for the people.
Objective To predict the number of registered nurses per thousand population,the ratio of doctors and nurses and other indicators in China in the future so as to provide reference for meeting the needs of the masses and social nursing services.Methods According to the data of registered nurses,practicing(assistant)physicians and population from 1980 to 2022 on the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics,a variety of time series analysis models were used to fit the previous data,and appropriate models were selected to predict the relevant indicators of nursing and its development in China from 2023 to 2030.Results By 2030,the number of registered nurses will reach 6.9046 million,or 4.91 per 1,000 people,and the ratio of physicians and nurses will reach 1∶1.47.Conclusion In the future,China's nursing human resources will continue to increase,it is necessary to further strengthen the management of nursing human resources,and constantly improve the professional level and work enthusiasm of nursing staffs,so as to provide more high-quality nursing services for the people.