학술논문
长江上游近61年来水文干旱演变特征及归因 / Evolution and attribution of hydrological drought in upper Yangtze River Basin over the last 61 years
Document Type
Academic Journal
Source
水力发电学报 / Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering. 43(2):33-45
Subject
Language
Chinese
ISSN
1003-1243
Abstract
水文干旱受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,揭示变化环境下水文干旱演变特征及驱动机制,有助于提高防旱抗旱能力.基于长江上游 1960-2020 年长系列气象水文数据,采用多模型集合模拟重建天然径流并计算标准化径流指数,采用广义可加模型构建时变标准化径流指数,通过指数对比定量区分气候变化和人类活动对水文干旱的影响.结果表明:长江上游水文干旱自然演变总体呈加剧态势,人类活动进一步加剧了旱情;长江上游水文干旱演变驱动因子表现出明显的时空差异,气候变化是金沙江、沱江和乌江流域年尺度水文干旱演变的主导因子,人类活动是岷江、嘉陵江和整个上游流域年尺度水文干旱演变的主导因子,季节尺度主导因子与年尺度并不完全一致.
Hydrological drought is jointly affected by climate change and human activities.Revealing the evolution characteristics of hydrological drought and its driving factors in the changing environment will contribute to improving the capacities of drought control and drought resistance.Based on the long time series of meteorological and hydrological data of 1960-2020 from the Upper Yangtze River Basin(UYRB),the present study first generates naturalized runoff time series using multi-model ensemble simulation method,and uses the reconstructed natural runoff to calculate the traditional standardized runoff index(SRIr)for characterizing the hydrological drought under natural conditions.Then,we simulate the time-dependent standardized runoff index(SRIt)using the generalized additive model for location,scale and shape(GAMLSS)with time as the covariate to represent the hydrological drought under non-stationary environment.Finally,the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought are distinguished quantitatively by comparative analysis of SRIr and SRIt series.The results show the overall trend of the hydrological drought evolution in this basin under natural conditions is intensified and has been further aggravated by human activities.The dominant factors of its hydrological drought evolution present obvious temporal and spatial differences:on the annual scale,climate change is the dominant factor in the basins of the Jinsha River,Tuo River and Wu River,while human activities are dominant in the Min River,Jialing River,and the whole upper Yangtze basin.Dominant factors of hydrological drought evolution on the seasonal scale are not completely consistent with those on the annual scale.
Hydrological drought is jointly affected by climate change and human activities.Revealing the evolution characteristics of hydrological drought and its driving factors in the changing environment will contribute to improving the capacities of drought control and drought resistance.Based on the long time series of meteorological and hydrological data of 1960-2020 from the Upper Yangtze River Basin(UYRB),the present study first generates naturalized runoff time series using multi-model ensemble simulation method,and uses the reconstructed natural runoff to calculate the traditional standardized runoff index(SRIr)for characterizing the hydrological drought under natural conditions.Then,we simulate the time-dependent standardized runoff index(SRIt)using the generalized additive model for location,scale and shape(GAMLSS)with time as the covariate to represent the hydrological drought under non-stationary environment.Finally,the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought are distinguished quantitatively by comparative analysis of SRIr and SRIt series.The results show the overall trend of the hydrological drought evolution in this basin under natural conditions is intensified and has been further aggravated by human activities.The dominant factors of its hydrological drought evolution present obvious temporal and spatial differences:on the annual scale,climate change is the dominant factor in the basins of the Jinsha River,Tuo River and Wu River,while human activities are dominant in the Min River,Jialing River,and the whole upper Yangtze basin.Dominant factors of hydrological drought evolution on the seasonal scale are not completely consistent with those on the annual scale.