부산대학교 도서관

为进一步揭示闽江流域降雨—径流关系的时空变化规律,识别主要驱动因子,基于1960-2019年降雨和径流数据,应用TFPW-MK方法,按照年以及年内的汛期与非汛期、前汛期和后汛期、最大月和最小月等不同时间尺度,检测闽江上游三大支流、干流及全流域等空间尺度的降雨—径流演变趋势;结合Sen trend方法,从气候变化、土地利用和水库工程建设3方面,分析影响降雨—径流关系变化的成因.结果表明:1)闽江流域及各支流年降雨—径流均呈不显著上升,趋势变化一致;2)除支流建溪流域,闽江及其他支流非汛期降雨—径流上升趋势显著;汛期内部趋势变化分化明显,前汛期降雨—径流略减少,后汛期降雨—径流大部分显著增加;3)极端降雨—径流的变化趋势不一致,主要受大型水库工程建设的影响.基于多时间尺度的分析,更深入揭示闽江流域降水、径流的演变及气候变化与人类活动的影响,对区域水资源管理与水土保持具有重要参考价值.
[Background]The evolution of rainfall-runoff relationships in changing environments is an important reference to local water resources management,disaster prevention and mitigation.Thus,it is essential to further reveal the spatial and temporal variations of rainfall-runoff relationships in the Minjiang River basin and identify the main driving factors.The study on the rainfall-runoff relationship of the Minjiang River basin is beneficial to understand the changes in the hydrological cycle under the changing environment,to ensure the economic development of the Minjiang River basin,and to provide scientific basis for soil and water conservation.[Methods]Based on rainfall and runoff data from 1960 to 2019,the TFPW-MK method was applied to detect the rainfall-runoff trend at different temporal scales from inter-annual and intra-annual levels,including flood and non-flood season,the first rainy season and second rainy season,maximum rainfall(runoff)month and minimum rainfall(runoff)month.The method was also applied at different spatial scales including the three major tributaries of the upper Minjiang River and the mainstream.Combined with Sen trend method,the causes affecting the changes of rainfall-runoff relationship including climate change,land use change and reservoir engineering construction were analyzed.[Results]1)The inter-annual rainfall and runoff of Minjiang River basin and its tributaries were all insignificantly increasing.2)Except for the tributary Jianxi,Minjiang River and other tributaries had a significant upward trend of rainfall-runoff in the non-flood season;the trend changes within the flood season were clearly differentiated,with a tiny decrease in rainfall-runoff in the first rainy season and a more significant increase in rainfall-runoff in the second rainy season.3)The trend of extreme rainfall-runoff was not consistent,the minimum monthly rainfall changed insignificantly while the minimum monthly runoff increased significantly,and the maximum monthly rainfall basically remained the same while the maximum monthly runoff showed a decreasing trend.[Conclusions]The inter-annual rainfall-runoff trends in the Minjiang River basin vary consistently under changing environments,but large variation within the year.The differentiated trend in the flood season is due to that typhoon activity and westerly path under the climate change lead to the increase of rainfall in the second rainy season,and the runoff also increased accordingly.And the inconsistent of extreme rainfall-runoff is mainly due to the influence of flood storage and refill operation of the reservoirs during the year.Therefore,the divergence of trends between the first and second rainy season is mainly influenced by the rainfall of different synoptic systems;the variation of extreme rainfall-runoff trends is mainly influenced by the construction of large reservoir projects.