학술논문
中国硼矿资源供需形势分析 / Analysis of supply and demand situation of boron resources in China
Document Type
Academic Journal
Source
中国矿业 / China Mining Magazine. 32(12):8-17
Subject
Language
Chinese
ISSN
1004-4051
Abstract
中国硼矿资源储量丰富,居世界第四位,但存在分布集中、高储低产、开采难度大等问题.同时,随着硼的应用场景不断拓宽,需求量增长,进口量快速攀升,导致硼矿资源对外依存度持续上涨.本文将定量分析与定性分析相结合,同时采用灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型和部门预测法对中国 2022-2026年硼消费量进行预测.灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型所得数值贴近部门预测法中性预测值,预测 2022-2026年中国硼表观消费量(以B2O3 计)分别为:115.64万t、122.66万t、130.18万t、138.24万t、146.86万t.此外,中国面临硼矿资源供需不平衡的情况,为改变这一现状,本文从供应端、市场端、需求端三方面出发,分析中国硼矿行业存在的问题,并提出建议:对已圈定的传统硼矿产地加大勘查开发力度,坚持不懈探索新的成矿潜力区,同时,"走出去"开发利用国外资源;推动硼矿行业全产业链优化升级,做到上中下游资源合理配置,解决各环节之间的供需矛盾;提高产业集中度,整合已经关闭或面临倒闭的小硼化工企业,加强针对硼矿资源的产学研合作的科学成果转化,并吸收消化国外先进技术,发展高端硼产品.
China ranks fourth in the world in terms of its abundant reserves of boron resources.However,there are several issues in the industry,such as the concentration of distribution,low yield despite large reserves,and the difficulty in mining.Additionally,the demand for boron resources has increased due to its expanding application scenes,resulting in a rise in imports and foreign dependence.The paper combines quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis and uses the gray system theory GM(1,1)model and departmental prediction method to predict China's boron consumption from 2022 to 2026.The GM(1,1)model provides results that align with the neutral prediction values obtained from the departmental prediction method.And predicts that China's apparent consumption(B2O3)of boron will reach 1.156 4 million tons,1.226 6 million tons,1.301 8 million tons,1.382 4 million tons,and 1.468 6 million tons,respectively,during the specified period.In addition,China is facing an imbalance between supply and demand of boron resources,to change this situation,analyzes the issue from the perspectives of the supply side,the demand side,and the market side,proposing reasonable recommendations to address these challenges,including increasing the exploration and development of traditional boron mining areas that have already been identified,persistently exploring new areas with potential for mineralization,and"going out"to develop and utilize foreign resources;promoting the optimization and upgrading of the entire industry chain of the boron industry,achieving reasonable resource allocation for upstream,midstream,and downstream sectors,and resolving the supply and demand contradiction between different links;improving industrial concentration by integrating small boron chemical enterprises that have already been closed or faced closure,and strengthening the transformation of scientific achievements through industry-university-research cooperation for the development of boron resources,and absorbing and digest advanced foreign technologies to develop high-end boron products.
China ranks fourth in the world in terms of its abundant reserves of boron resources.However,there are several issues in the industry,such as the concentration of distribution,low yield despite large reserves,and the difficulty in mining.Additionally,the demand for boron resources has increased due to its expanding application scenes,resulting in a rise in imports and foreign dependence.The paper combines quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis and uses the gray system theory GM(1,1)model and departmental prediction method to predict China's boron consumption from 2022 to 2026.The GM(1,1)model provides results that align with the neutral prediction values obtained from the departmental prediction method.And predicts that China's apparent consumption(B2O3)of boron will reach 1.156 4 million tons,1.226 6 million tons,1.301 8 million tons,1.382 4 million tons,and 1.468 6 million tons,respectively,during the specified period.In addition,China is facing an imbalance between supply and demand of boron resources,to change this situation,analyzes the issue from the perspectives of the supply side,the demand side,and the market side,proposing reasonable recommendations to address these challenges,including increasing the exploration and development of traditional boron mining areas that have already been identified,persistently exploring new areas with potential for mineralization,and"going out"to develop and utilize foreign resources;promoting the optimization and upgrading of the entire industry chain of the boron industry,achieving reasonable resource allocation for upstream,midstream,and downstream sectors,and resolving the supply and demand contradiction between different links;improving industrial concentration by integrating small boron chemical enterprises that have already been closed or faced closure,and strengthening the transformation of scientific achievements through industry-university-research cooperation for the development of boron resources,and absorbing and digest advanced foreign technologies to develop high-end boron products.