학술논문
Increasing situational awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number
Document Type
Working Paper
Author
Bizzotto, Andrea; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Marziano, Valentina; del Manso, Martina; Urdiales, Alberto Mateo; Petrone, Daniele; Cannone, Andrea; Sacco, Chiara; Poletti, Piero; Manica, Mattia; Zardini, Agnese; Trentini, Filippo; Fabiani, Massimo; Bella, Antonino; Riccardo, Flavia; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano
Source
Subject
Language
Abstract
The time varying reproduction number R is a critical variable for situational awareness during infectious disease outbreaks, but delays between infection and reporting hinder its accurate estimation in real time. We propose a nowcasting method for improving the timeliness and accuracy of R estimates, based on comparisons of successive versions of surveillance databases. The method was validated against COVID-19 surveillance data collected in Italy over an 18-month period. Compared to traditional methods, the nowcasted reproduction number reduced the estimation delay from 13 to 8 days, while maintaining a better accuracy. Moreover, it allowed anticipating the detection of periods of epidemic growth by between 6 and 23 days. The method offers a simple and generally applicable tool to improve situational awareness during an epidemic outbreak, allowing for informed public health response planning.