학술논문

Anticipatory Gains and Event-Driven Losses in Blockchain-Based Fan Tokens: Evidence from the FIFA World Cup
Document Type
Working Paper
Source
Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 70, Part A, 102333 (2024)
Subject
Quantitative Finance - General Finance
Quantitative Finance - Pricing of Securities
Quantitative Finance - Trading and Market Microstructure
91G70, 91B24, 91B25, 91B84, 91G70
J.4
Language
Abstract
National football teams increasingly issue tradeable blockchain-based fan tokens to strategically enhance fan engagement. This study investigates the impact of 2022 World Cup matches on the dynamic performance of each team's fan token. The event study uncovers fan token returns surged six months before the World Cup, driven by positive anticipation effects. However, intraday analysis reveals a reversal of fan token returns consistently declining and trading volumes rising as matches unfold. To explain findings, we uncover asymmetries whereby defeats in high-stake matches caused a plunge in fan token returns, compared to low-stake matches, intensifying in magnitude for knockout matches. Contrarily, victories enhance trading volumes, reflecting increased market activity without a corresponding positive effect on returns. We align findings with the classic market adage "buy the rumor, sell the news," unveiling cognitive biases and nuances in investor sentiment, cautioning the dichotomy of pre-event optimism and subsequent performance declines.
Comment: 31 pages, 5 tables, 1 figure