학술논문
A simplified estimate of the Effective Reproduction Number $R_t$ using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data
Document Type
Working Paper
Author
Source
The European Physical Journal Plus, 136(4), 1-14, April 11th 2021
Subject
Language
Abstract
A simplified method to compute $R_t$, the Effective Reproduction Number, is presented. The method relates the value of $R_t$ to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition $R_t = 1$ corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution.