부산대학교 도서관

This study explores the accuracy of forecasted target prices and its determinants. We find that 56.17% of target price is met at some time during the forecast horizon. The achievement rate of target price is higher for sell and hold recommendations than buy ones. The achievement rates for downgrade ratings are also higher than those of upgrade than reiterate ratings. Analysts overshoot the target price of larger firms, and when they work in a young and more experienced security firms. In the case of positive implicit returns, target price overshooting is greater when predicting strong price increases, and analysts conservatively estimate target prices when stock prices increase before the prediction and market returns rise during the forecasting period. In the case of negative implicit returns, analysts are over pessimistic about target prices, but conservatively estimate target prices when stock prices decrease before predicting and market returns decline during the forecasting period. Finally, analysts exhibit persistent ability to forecast accurate target price.