부산대학교 도서관

The purpose of this study is to investigate the development of Taiwanese biodiesel industry in the following five years by employing the approach of combining scenario analysis and Delphi. Based on the interview with experts and the reviews on biodiesel literature, this study obtains the key decision factors and drivers which might influence the development of Taiwanese biodiesel industry. The influential factors can be categorized into three uncertainty axes. Then, the axes can farther develop eight scenario logics. Experts selected the optimistic, which also is the most possible, the pessimistic and a second possible scenarios from the eight scenarios. Finally, after analyzing the opportunities and treats which the biodiesel enterprises might suffer in each selected scenario, this study provides suggestions and strategies for the biodiesel enterprises.