학술논문
Global projections of heat exposure of older adults.
Document Type
Academic Journal
Author
Falchetta G; CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Venice, Italy. giacomo.falchetta@cmcc.it.; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Venice, Italy. giacomo.falchetta@cmcc.it.; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. giacomo.falchetta@cmcc.it.; De Cian E; CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Venice, Italy.; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Venice, Italy.; Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University, Venice, Italy.; Sue Wing I; Department of Earth & Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.; Carr D; Department of Sociology, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.
Source
Publisher: Nature Pub. Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101528555 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2041-1723 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20411723 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nat Commun Subsets: MEDLINE
Subject
Language
English
Abstract
The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations' vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177-246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.
(© 2024. The Author(s).)
(© 2024. The Author(s).)