학술논문
Model-based assessment of flood generation mechanisms over Poland: The roles of precipitation, snowmelt, and soil moisture excess.
Document Type
Academic Journal
Author
Venegas-Cordero N; Department of Hydrology, Meteorology and Water Management, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland. Electronic address: nelson_venegas@sggw.edu.pl.; Cherrat C; Department of Bioresource Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada. Electronic address: cyrine.cherrat@mail.mcgill.ca.; Kundzewicz ZW; Meteorology Lab, Department of Construction and Geoengineering, Faculty of Environmental Engineering and Mechanical Engineering, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Poznań, Poland.; Singh J; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zürich, Switzerland. Electronic address: jitendra.singh@env.ethz.ch.; Piniewski M; Department of Hydrology, Meteorology and Water Management, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland. Electronic address: mikolaj_piniewski@sggw.edu.pl.
Source
Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 0330500 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1879-1026 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00489697 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Total Environ Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE; MEDLINE
Subject
Language
English
Abstract
Hydrometeorological variability, such as changes in extreme precipitation, snowmelt, or soil moisture excess, in Poland can lead to fluvial flooding. In this study we employed the dataset covering components of the water balance with a daily time step at the sub-basin level over the country for 1952-2020. The data set was derived from the previously calibrated and validated Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for over 4000 sub-basins. We applied the Mann Kendall test and circular statistics-based approach on annual maximum floods and various potential flood drivers to estimate the trend, seasonality, and relative importance of each driver. In addition, two sub-periods (1952-1985 and 1986-2020) were considered to examine changes in flood mechanism in the recent decades. We show that floods in the northeast Poland were decreasing, while in the south the trend showed a positive behavior. Moreover, the snowmelt is a primary driver of flooding across the country, followed by soil moisture excess and precipitation. The latter seemed to be the dominant driver only in a small, mountain-dominated region in the south. Soil moisture excess gained importance mainly in the northern part, suggesting that the spatial pattern of flood generation mechanisms is also governed by other features. We also found a strong signal of climate change in large parts of northern Poland, where snowmelt is losing importance in the second sub-period in favor of soil moisture excess, which can be explained by the temperature warming and diminishing role of snow processes.
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)