학술논문
Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context.
Document Type
Academic Journal
Author
Sheppard RJ; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK.; Watson OJ; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK.; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.; Pieciak R; Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.; Lungu J; Avencion Limited, Lusaka, Zambia.; Kwenda G; Department of Biomedical Sciences, School of Health Sciences, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.; Moyo C; Avencion Limited, Lusaka, Zambia.; Chanda SL; Zambia National Public Health Institute, Lusaka, Zambia.; Barnsley G; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK.; Brazeau NF; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK.; Gerard-Ursin ICG; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK.; Olivera Mesa D; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK.; Whittaker C; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK.; Gregson S; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK.; Manicaland Centre for Public Health Research, Biomedical Research and Training Institute, Harare, Zimbabwe.; Okell LC; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK.; Ghani AC; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK.; MacLeod WB; Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.; Del Fava E; Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.; Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.; Melegaro A; Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.; Department of Social and Political Science, Bocconi University, Milano, Italy.; Hines JZ; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Lusaka, Zambia.; Mulenga LB; Zambia Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia.; Walker PGT; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK. patrick.walker06@imperial.ac.uk.; Mwananyanda L; Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.; Avencion Limited, Lusaka, Zambia.; Gill CJ; Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Source
Publisher: Nature Pub. Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101528555 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2041-1723 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20411723 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nat Commun Subsets: MEDLINE
Subject
Language
English
Abstract
Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104-4591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI: 13.0-25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortality patterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making during future pandemics, barriers to ascertaining attributable mortality in low-income settings must be addressed and factored into discourse around reported impact differences.
(© 2023. The Author(s).)
(© 2023. The Author(s).)