학술논문

A theorem on interest rate differentials, risk and anticipated inflation.
Document Type
Article
Source
Applied Economics. Dec1987, Vol. 19 Issue 12, p1675. 9p. 2 Charts.
Subject
*Interest rates
*Price inflation
*Eurocurrency market
*Risk
*Bankers
*Treasury bills
Language
ISSN
0003-6846
Abstract
This paper develops a theorem to the effect that the difference in nominal interest rates between two securities of the same maturity but different risk is an increasing linear function of the anticipated rate of inflation. Even when society's inflationary expectations are modelled in a naive way, the evidence is consistent with the theorem's inferences. A preliminary attempt is made to estimate the real risk premiums that finance paper, bankers' acceptances, commercial paper, certificates of deposit, and Eurodollar deposits command over treasury bills. It is found, for example, that the real risk premium commanded by bankers' acceptances over treasury bills is five basis points. This means that in a non-inflationary environment, bankers' acceptances would yield five basis points more than treasury bills. This estimate and the other estimates obtained are not implausible, but they are probably minimum estimates because of bias in the estimate of inflationary expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]