부산대학교 도서관

SARS-CoV-2 has spread across the world, causing high mortality and unprecedented restrictions on social and economic activity. Policymakers are assessing how best to navigate through the ongoing epidemic, with computational models being used to predict the spread of infection and assess the impact of public health measures. Here, we present OpenABM-Covid19: an agent-based simulation of the epidemic including detailed age-stratification and realistic social networks. By default the model is parameterised to UK demographics and calibrated to the UK epidemic, however, it can easily be re-parameterised for other countries. OpenABM-Covid19 can evaluate non-pharmaceutical interventions, including both manual and digital contact tracing, and vaccination programmes. It can simulate a population of 1 million people in seconds per day, allowing parameter sweeps and formal statistical model-based inference. The code is open-source and has been developed by teams both inside and outside academia, with an emphasis on formal testing, documentation, modularity and transparency. A key feature of OpenABM-Covid19 are its Python and R interfaces, which has allowed scientists and policymakers to simulate dynamic packages of interventions and help compare options to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic. Author summary: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, computational modelling has been used to inform key uncertainties facing policymakers such as the number of cases and deaths, hospital capacity, tests and contact tracers. Models need to be: sufficiently complex to yield realistic predictions; computationally efficient to allow calibrations; and easy to use so that various policy mixes can be evaluated. OpenABM-Covid19 is a detailed epidemic model of the spread of COVID-19, simulating every individual in a population. Our model enables scientists and policymakers to quickly compare the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions like lockdowns, testing, quarantine, and digital and manual contact tracing. The model considers a hypothetical city with a default population of 1 million people whose ages and contact patterns are parameterised according to UK demographics. All of the parameters are openly documented and modifiable so that they can be adapted to fit other countries' data, and refined to match our understanding of COVID-19 as the epidemic progresses. The computer model simulates people's movement between their homes, workplaces, schools, and social interactions. OpenABM-Covid19 is open source and has been developed collaboratively by teams from academia and industry. Its modularity, documentation, testing framework, and accessibility via Python and R have provided validation, invited contributions, and encouraged wide adoption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]