학술논문
Long-term forecasting the dynamics of energy losses in the heating networks of JSC "Russian Railways" on the basis of time series model.
Document Type
Article
Author
Source
Subject
*ENERGY dissipation
*HEAT losses
*TIME series analysis
*THERMAL insulation
*JOINT use of railroad facilities
*LONG-Term Evolution (Telecommunications)
*FORECASTING
*PIPELINE inspection
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Language
ISSN
0094-243X
Abstract
The article considers the solution of the problem of constructing forecast values for a long period to reduce the loss of heat energy during its transportation in heat networks from a local heat source to the final consumer for a geographically distributed company-Russian Railways. A mathematical model based on time series using the Bollinger method is proposed, which includes elements of extrapolation and modeling. The factors affecting the magnitude of these losses are considered, and the most significant of them is highlighted. On the basis of the proposed model, the calculations of the forecast values up to 2035 are performed, at the same time, the possible change in the values of these losses in the case of the alternative use of new materials in the thermal insulation structures of pipelines and their impact on the reduction of the values of heat losses in the whole railway network are shown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]