학술논문

Extrapolation of an Optimal Policy using Statistical Probabilistic Model Checking.
Document Type
Article
Source
Fundamenta Informaticae. 2018, Vol. 157 Issue 4, p443-461. 19p.
Subject
*EXTRAPOLATION
*PARTIALLY observable Markov decision processes
*STOCHASTIC approximation
*MODAL logic
*MONTE Carlo method
Language
ISSN
0169-2968
Abstract
We present different ways of an approximate extrapolation of an optimal policy of a small model to that of a large equivalent of the model, which itself is too large to find its exact policy directly using probabilistic model checking (PMC). In particular, we obtain a global optimal resolution of non–determinism in several small Markov Decision Processes (MDP) or its extensions like Stochastic Multi-player Games (SMG) using PMC. We then use that resolution to form a hypothesis about an analytic decision boundary representing a respective policy in an equivalent large MDP/SMG. The resulting hypothetical decision boundary is then statistically approximately verified, if it is locally optimal and if it indeed represents a ”good enough” policy. The verification either weakens or strengthens the hypothesis. The criterion of the optimality of the policy can be expressed in any modal logic that includes a version of the probabilistic operator P~p[·], and for which a PMC method exists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]