학술논문

Chance Combinatorics: The Theory that History Forgot.
Document Type
Article
Source
Perspectives on Science. Nov/Dec2023, Vol. 31 Issue 6, p771-810. 40p.
Subject
*COMBINATORICS
*MODEL theory
Language
ISSN
1063-6145
Abstract
Seventeenth-century "chance combinatorics" was a self-contained theory. It had an objective notion of chance derived from physical devices with chance properties, such as casts of dice, combinatorics to count chances and, to interpret their significance, a rule for converting these counts into fair wagers. It lacked a notion of chance as a measure of belief, a precise way to connect chance counts with frequencies and a way to compare chances across different games. These omissions were not needed for the theory's interpretation of chance counts: determining which are fair wagers. The theory provided a model for how indefinitenesses could be treated with mathematical precision in a special case and stimulated efforts to seek a broader theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]