학술논문

Modeling the impact of national and regional lockdowns on the 2020 spring wave of COVID-19 in France.
Document Type
Article
Source
Scientific Reports. 2/1/2023, Vol. 13 Issue 1, p1-9. 9p.
Subject
*STAY-at-home orders
*COVID-19 pandemic
*INTENSIVE care units
*PUBLIC health
Language
ISSN
2045-2322
Abstract
Several countries have implemented lockdowns to control their COVID-19 epidemic. However, questions like "where" and "when" still require answers. We assessed the impact of national and regional lockdowns considering the French first epidemic wave of COVID-19 as a case study. In a regional lockdown scenario aimed at preventing intensive care units (ICU) saturation, almost all French regions would have had to implement a lockdown within 10 days and 96% of ICU capacities would have been used. For slowly growing epidemics, with a lower reproduction number, the expected delays between regional lockdowns increase. However, the public health costs associated with these delays tend to grow with time. In a quickly growing pandemic wave, defining the timing of lockdowns at a regional rather than national level delays by a few days the implementation of a nationwide lockdown but leads to substantially higher morbidity, mortality, and stress on the healthcare system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]