학술논문
The Waldmeier rule and early diagnostics of the maximum of the current solar cycle.
Document Type
Article
Author
Source
Subject
*SOLAR cycle
*SOLAR activity forecasting
*MAGNETIC flux
*COSMIC magnetic fields
*DYNAMO theory (Physics)
*NONLINEAR theories
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Language
ISSN
1063-7729
Abstract
The well known Waldmeier rule and its modifications applied to forecasting of the solar activity are discussed. The maximum annual mean rate of the increase in the magnetic flux observed on the growth branch of the cycle is proposed as a predicting (diagnosing) parameter for the amplitude of the cycle currently in progress. The maximum Wolf number of the current (24th) cycle is estimated to reach 104 (±12) or more, and to occur in 2013 or later. The yearly average Wolf numbers observed during the 24th cycle are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]