학술논문
WHEN IS SRI LANKA REACHING REPLACEMENT LEVEL OF FERTILITY?
Document Type
Article
Author
Source
Subject
*HUMAN fertility statistics
*BIRTH intervals
*FAMILY planning
*POPULATION education
*FAMILY size
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Language
ISSN
1391-3433
Abstract
According to 2012 census data, we find that Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has further increased to 2.51, an increase of 6.4 percentage points from its previous level in 2006/07. It is a known fact all the fluctuations in TFR in any country are due to fertility adjustments by the population during the post transitional time periods. These adjustments can occur due to various factors such as conflict situations, natural disasters or neglect of contraceptive use/unmet need for family planning. By examining the fluctuations in TFR in Sri Lanka, we can reasonably predict that TFR will decline in the coming years by fitting 3rd order polynomial function. It shows that TFR is likely to reach replacement level of fertility in 2022. This prediction is also based on the resemblance of the TFR increase due to the post-war baby-boom in the West. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]