부산대학교 도서관

In this article, an approach for probabilistic trajectory forecasting of vulnerable road users (VRUs) is presented, taking into consideration past movements and the surrounding environment. Past movements are represented by 3D poses reflecting the posture and movements of individual body parts. The surrounding environment is modeled in the form of semantic maps showing, e.g., the course of streets, sidewalks, and the occurrence of obstacles. Forecasts are generated in grids discretizing the space and in the form of arbitrary discrete probability distributions. The distributions are evaluated for their reliability, sharpness, and positional accuracy. We compare our method with two approaches providing forecasts in the form of continuous probability distributions, and we discuss their respective advantages and disadvantages. We thereby investigate the impact of poses and semantic maps. Using a technique we refer to as spatial label smoothing, our approach is able to achieve reliable forecasts. Overall, the 3D poses have a positive impact on the forecasts. The semantic maps facilitate the adaptation of the probability distributions to the individual situation and prevent forecasts of trajectories leading through obstacles. Our method is evaluated on a dataset recorded in inner-city traffic using a research vehicle. The dataset has been made publicly available.