부산대학교 도서관

Few attempts have been made to simulate the complex natural history of opioid use disorder. We developed a model to simulate an agent's opioid use over 15-minute time-steps. We followed the principles of control theory and opponent-process theory, formalizing representations of several processes (tolerance, effect, craving) as weighted integrations of opioid concentration, which was modeled with a pharmacokinetic equation. We calibrated our model to reproduce five qualitative opioid use trajectories commonly observed in the literature. We demonstrate how a relatively simple control theory approach can reproduce many of the key characteristics of real-world opioid use.