학술논문
Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea.
Document Type
Academic Journal
Author
Bartosova A; SMHI, 60176, Norrköping, Sweden. alena.bartosova@smhi.se.; Capell R; SMHI, 60176, Norrköping, Sweden.; Olesen JE; Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark.; Jabloun M; University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington, LE12 5RD, UK.; Refsgaard JC; GEUS, Copenhagen, Denmark.; Donnelly C; SMHI, 60176, Norrköping, Sweden.; Hyytiäinen K; University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 27, 00014, Helsinki, Finland.; Pihlainen S; University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 27, 00014, Helsinki, Finland.; Zandersen M; Department of Environmental Science & iClimate Interdiciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Aarhus University, 4000, Roskilde, Denmark.; Arheimer B; SMHI, 60176, Norrköping, Sweden.
Source
Publisher: Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Country of Publication: Sweden NLM ID: 0364220 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1654-7209 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00447447 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Ambio Subsets: MEDLINE
Subject
Language
English
Abstract
The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.