학술논문
The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management.
Document Type
Academic Journal
Author
Kreibich H; GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany. Heidi.Kreibich@gfz-potsdam.de.; Van Loon AF; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.; Schröter K; GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany.; Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources, Division of Hydrology and River basin management, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Braunschweig, Germany.; Ward PJ; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.; Mazzoleni M; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.; Sairam N; GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany.; Abeshu GW; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX, USA.; Agafonova S; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.; AghaKouchak A; University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.; Aksoy H; Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey.; Alvarez-Garreton C; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile.; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile.; Aznar B; Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l'Aigua S.A, Barcelona, Spain.; Balkhi L; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.; Barendrecht MH; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.; Biancamaria S; LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France.; Bos-Burgering L; Department of Groundwater Management, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands.; Bradley C; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.; Budiyono Y; Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Jakarta, Indonesia.; Buytaert W; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK.; Capewell L; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.; Carlson H; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.; Cavus Y; Department of Civil Engineering, Beykent University, Istanbul, Turkey.; Graduate School, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey.; Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.; Couasnon A; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.; Coxon G; Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.; Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.; Daliakopoulos I; Department of Agriculture, Hellenic Mediterranean University, Iraklio, Greece.; de Ruiter MC; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.; Delus C; Université de Lorraine, LOTERR, Metz, France.; Erfurt M; Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.; Esposito G; CNR-IRPI, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, Cosenza, Italy.; François D; Université de Lorraine, LOTERR, Metz, France.; Frappart F; INRAE, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, UMR ISPA, Villenave d'Ornon, France.; Freer J; Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.; Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.; University of Saskatchewan, Centre for Hydrology, Canmore, Alberta, Canada.; Frolova N; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.; Gain AK; Environmental Policy and Planning Group, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.; Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy.; Grillakis M; Lab of Geophysical-Remote Sensing & Archaeo-environment, Institute for Mediterranean Studies, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, Rethymno, Greece.; Grima JO; Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l'Aigua S.A, Barcelona, Spain.; Guzmán DA; Pontificia Bolivariana University, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Bucaramanga, Colombia.; Huning LS; University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.; California State University, Long Beach, CA, USA.; Ionita M; Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Palaeoclimate Dynamics Group, Bremerhaven, Germany.; Emil Racovita Institute of Speleology, Romanian Academy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania.; Forest Biometrics Laboratory, Faculty of Forestry, Ștefan cel Mare University, Suceava, Romania.; Kharlamov M; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.; Water Problem Institute Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia.; Khoi DN; Faculty of Environment, University of Science, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.; Kieboom N; Environment Agency, Bristol, UK.; Kireeva M; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.; Koutroulis A; School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece.; Lavado-Casimiro W; Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú, Lima, Peru.; Li HY; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX, USA.; LLasat MC; Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.; Water Research Institute, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.; Macdonald D; British Geological Survey, Wallingford, UK.; Mård J; Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala, Sweden.; Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.; Mathew-Richards H; Environment Agency, Bristol, UK.; McKenzie A; British Geological Survey, Wallingford, UK.; Mejia A; Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA.; Mendiondo EM; Escola de Engenharia de Sao Carlos, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil.; Mens M; Department of Water Resources & Delta Management, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands.; Mobini S; Trelleborg municipality, Trelleborg, Sweden.; Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.; Mohor GS; University of Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Potsdam, Germany.; Nagavciuc V; Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Palaeoclimate Dynamics Group, Bremerhaven, Germany.; Forest Biometrics Laboratory, Faculty of Forestry, Ștefan cel Mare University, Suceava, Romania.; Ngo-Duc T; University of Science and Technology of Hanoi, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam.; Thao Nguyen Huynh T; Institute for Environment and Resources, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.; Nhi PTT; Faculty of Environment, University of Science, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.; Petrucci O; CNR-IRPI, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, Cosenza, Italy.; Nguyen HQ; Institute for Environment and Resources, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.; Institute for Circular Economy Development, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.; Quintana-Seguí P; Observatori de l'Ebre, Ramon Llull University - CSIC, Roquetes, Spain.; Razavi S; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.; School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.; Department of Civil, Geological and Environmental Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.; Ridolfi E; Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy.; Riegel J; University of Applied Sciences, Magdeburg, Germany.; Sadik MS; Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services, Dhaka, Bangladesh.; Savelli E; Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala, Sweden.; Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.; Sazonov A; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.; Water Problem Institute Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia.; Sharma S; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA.; Sörensen J; Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.; Arguello Souza FA; Escola de Engenharia de Sao Carlos, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil.; Stahl K; Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.; Steinhausen M; GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany.; Stoelzle M; Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.; Szalińska W; Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute, Warsaw, Poland.; Tang Q; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.; Tian F; Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.; Tokarczyk T; Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute, Warsaw, Poland.; Tovar C; Royal Botanical Gardens Kew, London, UK.; Tran TVT; Institute for Environment and Resources, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.; Van Huijgevoort MHJ; KWR Water Research Institute, Nieuwegein, the Netherlands.; van Vliet MTH; Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.; Vorogushyn S; GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany.; Wagener T; Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.; University of Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Potsdam, Germany.; Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.; Wang Y; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.; Wendt DE; Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.; Wickham E; School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA.; Yang L; School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.; Zambrano-Bigiarini M; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile.; Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile.; Blöschl G; Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Technische Universität Wien, Vienna, Austria.; Di Baldassarre G; Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala, Sweden.; Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.; Department of Integrated Water Systems and Governance, IHE Delft, Delft, the Netherlands.
Source
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 0410462 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1476-4687 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00280836 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nature Subsets: MEDLINE
Subject
Language
English
Abstract
Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally 1,2 , yet their impacts are still increasing 3 . An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data 4,5 . On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change 3 .
(© 2022. The Author(s).)
(© 2022. The Author(s).)