학술논문
Comparative transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Alpha in New England, USA.
Document Type
Author
Earnest R; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Uddin R; Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA.; Matluk N; Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Augusta, ME 04333.; Health and Environmental Testing Laboratory, Augusta, ME 04333.; Renzette N; The Jackson Laboratory for Genomic Medicine, Farmington, CT 06032, USA.; Siddle KJ; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.; Loreth C; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.; Adams G; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.; Tomkins-Tinch CH; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.; Petrone ME; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Rothman JE; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Breban MI; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Koch RT; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Billig K; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Fauver JR; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Vogels CBF; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Turbett S; Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA.; Bilguvar K; Yale Center for Genome Analysis, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Departments of Neurosurgery and Genetics, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Department of Medical Genetics, Acibadem University School of Medicine, Istanbul, Turkey.; De Kumar B; Yale Center for Genome Analysis, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Landry ML; Departments of Laboratory Medicine and Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Peaper DR; Departments of Laboratory Medicine and Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Kelly K; The Jackson Laboratory for Genomic Medicine, Farmington, CT 06032, USA.; Omerza G; The Jackson Laboratory for Genomic Medicine, Farmington, CT 06032, USA.; Grieser H; Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Augusta, ME 04333.; Health and Environmental Testing Laboratory, Augusta, ME 04333.; Meak S; Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Augusta, ME 04333.; Health and Environmental Testing Laboratory, Augusta, ME 04333.; Martha J; Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Augusta, ME 04333.; Health and Environmental Testing Laboratory, Augusta, ME 04333.; Dewey HH; The Jackson Laboratory, Bar Harbor, ME 04609, USA.; Kales S; The Jackson Laboratory, Bar Harbor, ME 04609, USA.; Berenzy D; The Jackson Laboratory, Bar Harbor, ME 04609, USA.; Carpenter-Azevedo K; Rhode Island Department of Health, State Health Laboratories, Providence, RI 02904, USA.; King E; Rhode Island Department of Health, State Health Laboratories, Providence, RI 02904, USA.; Huard RC; Rhode Island Department of Health, State Health Laboratories, Providence, RI 02904, USA.; Smole SC; Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston MA 02130, USA.; Brown CM; Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston MA 02130, USA.; Fink T; Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston MA 02130, USA.; Lang AS; Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston MA 02130, USA.; Gallagher GR; Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston MA 02130, USA.; Sabeti PC; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.; Gabriel S; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.; MacInnis BL; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.; Tewhey R; Department of Medical Genetics, Acibadem University School of Medicine, Istanbul, Turkey.; Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02111, USA.; Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences and Engineering, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA.; Adams MD; The Jackson Laboratory for Genomic Medicine, Farmington, CT 06032, USA.; Park DJ; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.; Lemieux JE; Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA.; Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA.; Grubaugh ND; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.
Source
Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101767986 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet NLM ISO Abbreviation: medRxiv Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE
Subject
Language
English
Abstract
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta variant quickly rose to dominance in mid-2021, displacing other variants, including Alpha. Studies using data from the United Kingdom and India estimated that Delta was 40-80% more transmissible than Alpha, allowing Delta to become the globally dominant variant. However, it was unclear if the ostensible difference in relative transmissibility was due mostly to innate properties of Delta's infectiousness or differences in the study populations. To investigate, we formed a partnership with SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance programs from all six New England US states. By comparing logistic growth rates, we found that Delta emerged 37-163% faster than Alpha in early 2021 (37% Massachusetts, 75% New Hampshire, 95% Maine, 98% Rhode Island, 151% Connecticut, and 163% Vermont). We next computed variant-specific effective reproductive numbers and estimated that Delta was 58-120% more transmissible than Alpha across New England (58% New Hampshire, 68% Massachusetts, 76% Connecticut, 85% Rhode Island, 98% Maine, and 120% Vermont). Finally, using RT-PCR data, we estimated that Delta infections generate on average ∼6 times more viral RNA copies per mL than Alpha infections. Overall, our evidence indicates that Delta's enhanced transmissibility could be attributed to its innate ability to increase infectiousness, but its epidemiological dynamics may vary depending on the underlying immunity and behavior of distinct populations.