학술논문
Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels
Document Type
article
Author
Kai Chen; Evan de Schrijver; Sidharth Sivaraj; Francesco Sera; Noah Scovronick; Leiwen Jiang; Dominic Roye; Eric Lavigne; Jan Kyselý; Aleš Urban; Alexandra Schneider; Veronika Huber; Joana Madureira; Malcolm N. Mistry; Ivana Cvijanovic; MCC Collaborative Research Network; Antonio Gasparrini; Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
Source
Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2024)
Subject
Language
English
ISSN
2041-1723
Abstract
Abstract Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.