학술논문
Global, regional, and national burden of neck pain, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Document Type
Academic Journal
Author
Source
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101765308 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2665-9913 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 26659913 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Lancet Rheumatol Subsets: MEDLINE
Subject
Language
English
Abstract
Background: Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.
Methods: Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution.
Findings: Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [-1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330-3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600-2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219-322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9-42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing.
Interpretation: Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain.
Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.
Competing Interests: Declaration of interests B Antony reports grants from the Rebecca Cooper Foundation and the Nat Rem Ltd grant; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, or educational events from Nat Red Ltd and IRACON; outside the submitted work. A M Briggs reports grants or contracts paid to his institution from the Bone and Joint Decade Foundation, AO Alliance, Canadian Memorial Chiropractic College, Australian Rheumatology Association, Pan-American League of Associations for Rheumatology, World Federation of Chiropractic, and Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology; consulting fees from WHO; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from the American College of Rheumatology; support for attending meetings/travel from WHO; outside the submitted work. R Buchbinder reports grants or contracts from Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australian Commonwealth government, HCF Foundation, Cabrini Foundation, and Arthritis Australia; royalties from UptoDate for plantar fasciitis; outside the submitted work. J M Elliott reports other financial support from Orofacial Therapeutics LLC, outside the submitted work. R C Franklin reports grants or contracts from Heatwaves in Queensland – Queensland Government, Arc Flash –Human Factors – Queensland Government, and Mobile Plant Safety – Agrifutures; honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from the World Safety Conference 2022 - Conference Convener; support for attending meetings and/or travel from ACTM – Tropical Medicine and Travel Medicine Conference 2022 and ISTM – Travel Medicine Conference, Basel 2023; leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid with Kidsafe as a Director, Auschem as a Director, the International Society for Agricultural Safety and Health (ISASH) on the Governance Committee, Farmsafe as a Director, and the Public Health Association of Australia (PHAA) as the Injury Prevention SIG Convenor; outside the submitted work. J J Hebert reports financial support from the New Brunswick Health Research Foundation and the Canadian Chiropractic Research Foundation; outside the submitted work. D Kopansky-Giles reports leadership roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid with the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health as a member of the executive committee; outside the submitted work. K Krishan reports other non-financial support from UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India; outside the submitted work. E Mathews reports grants or contracts from Wellcome DBT India Alliance; outside the submitted work. S Sharma reports grants or contracts from the International Association for the Study of Pain John J Bonica Postdoctoral Fellowship (the funder does not have any influence on S Sharma's research); support for attending meetings/travel from the International Association for the Study of Pain (IASP) Congress in Toronto in 2022; other nonfinancial support as a Board Member of the IASP Pain Mind and Movement Special Interest Group of the IASP, Global Year Task Force Member 2022 and 2023, and as a Board Member of Global Alliance of Partners for Pain Advocacy; outside the submitted work. J A Singh reports consulting fees from Crealta/Horizon, Medisys, Fidia, PK Med, Two labs Inc., Adept Field Solutions, Clinical Care options, Clearview healthcare partners, Putnam associates, Focus forward, Navigant consulting, Spherix, MedIQ, Jupiter Life Science, UBM LLC, Trio Health, Medscape, WebMD, and Practice Point communications; and the National Institutes of Health and the American College of Rheumatology; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from the speaker's bureau of Simply Speaking; support for attending meetings and/or travel from OMERACT as a member of the steering committee; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board with the FDA Arthritis Advisory Committee; leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid as a past steering committee member of the OMERACT, an international organization that develops measures for clinical trials and receives arms length funding from 12 pharmaceutical companies, Co-Chair of the Veterans Affairs Rheumatology Field Advisory Committee, and the editor and Director of the UAB Cochrane Musculoskeletal Group Satellite Center on Network Meta-analysis; stock or stock options in Atai Life Sciences, Kintara Therapeutics, Intelligent Biosolutions, Acumen Pharmaceutical, TPT Global Tech, Vaxart Pharmaceuticals, Atyu Biopharma, Adaptimmune Therapeutics, GeoVax Labs, Pieris Pharmaceuticals, Enzolytics Inc., Seres Therapeutics, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp., and Charlotte's Web Holdings, Inc, as well as previously owned stock options in Amarin, Viking and Moderna Pharmaceuticals; outside the submitted work. D M Walton reports grants from Natural Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) in Canada; Consulting fees for digital MSK health start-up; payment for expert testimony from the College of Physiotherapists of Ontario; patents planned, issued, or pending for a panel of blood markers to detect ‘risk’ of chronic pain after MSK trauma – including but not specific to the neck; stock or stock options in TSX stocks; other financial support as a co-author of a book on musculoskeletal pain from Handspring Publishers; all outside the submitted work. A Woolf reports leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid with the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health as a co-chair; outside the submitted work.
(Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Methods: Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution.
Findings: Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163-253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960-3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165-346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [-1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330-3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600-2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219-322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9-42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing.
Interpretation: Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain.
Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.
Competing Interests: Declaration of interests B Antony reports grants from the Rebecca Cooper Foundation and the Nat Rem Ltd grant; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, or educational events from Nat Red Ltd and IRACON; outside the submitted work. A M Briggs reports grants or contracts paid to his institution from the Bone and Joint Decade Foundation, AO Alliance, Canadian Memorial Chiropractic College, Australian Rheumatology Association, Pan-American League of Associations for Rheumatology, World Federation of Chiropractic, and Asia Pacific League of Associations for Rheumatology; consulting fees from WHO; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from the American College of Rheumatology; support for attending meetings/travel from WHO; outside the submitted work. R Buchbinder reports grants or contracts from Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australian Commonwealth government, HCF Foundation, Cabrini Foundation, and Arthritis Australia; royalties from UptoDate for plantar fasciitis; outside the submitted work. J M Elliott reports other financial support from Orofacial Therapeutics LLC, outside the submitted work. R C Franklin reports grants or contracts from Heatwaves in Queensland – Queensland Government, Arc Flash –Human Factors – Queensland Government, and Mobile Plant Safety – Agrifutures; honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from the World Safety Conference 2022 - Conference Convener; support for attending meetings and/or travel from ACTM – Tropical Medicine and Travel Medicine Conference 2022 and ISTM – Travel Medicine Conference, Basel 2023; leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid with Kidsafe as a Director, Auschem as a Director, the International Society for Agricultural Safety and Health (ISASH) on the Governance Committee, Farmsafe as a Director, and the Public Health Association of Australia (PHAA) as the Injury Prevention SIG Convenor; outside the submitted work. J J Hebert reports financial support from the New Brunswick Health Research Foundation and the Canadian Chiropractic Research Foundation; outside the submitted work. D Kopansky-Giles reports leadership roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid with the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health as a member of the executive committee; outside the submitted work. K Krishan reports other non-financial support from UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India; outside the submitted work. E Mathews reports grants or contracts from Wellcome DBT India Alliance; outside the submitted work. S Sharma reports grants or contracts from the International Association for the Study of Pain John J Bonica Postdoctoral Fellowship (the funder does not have any influence on S Sharma's research); support for attending meetings/travel from the International Association for the Study of Pain (IASP) Congress in Toronto in 2022; other nonfinancial support as a Board Member of the IASP Pain Mind and Movement Special Interest Group of the IASP, Global Year Task Force Member 2022 and 2023, and as a Board Member of Global Alliance of Partners for Pain Advocacy; outside the submitted work. J A Singh reports consulting fees from Crealta/Horizon, Medisys, Fidia, PK Med, Two labs Inc., Adept Field Solutions, Clinical Care options, Clearview healthcare partners, Putnam associates, Focus forward, Navigant consulting, Spherix, MedIQ, Jupiter Life Science, UBM LLC, Trio Health, Medscape, WebMD, and Practice Point communications; and the National Institutes of Health and the American College of Rheumatology; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from the speaker's bureau of Simply Speaking; support for attending meetings and/or travel from OMERACT as a member of the steering committee; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board with the FDA Arthritis Advisory Committee; leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid as a past steering committee member of the OMERACT, an international organization that develops measures for clinical trials and receives arms length funding from 12 pharmaceutical companies, Co-Chair of the Veterans Affairs Rheumatology Field Advisory Committee, and the editor and Director of the UAB Cochrane Musculoskeletal Group Satellite Center on Network Meta-analysis; stock or stock options in Atai Life Sciences, Kintara Therapeutics, Intelligent Biosolutions, Acumen Pharmaceutical, TPT Global Tech, Vaxart Pharmaceuticals, Atyu Biopharma, Adaptimmune Therapeutics, GeoVax Labs, Pieris Pharmaceuticals, Enzolytics Inc., Seres Therapeutics, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp., and Charlotte's Web Holdings, Inc, as well as previously owned stock options in Amarin, Viking and Moderna Pharmaceuticals; outside the submitted work. D M Walton reports grants from Natural Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) in Canada; Consulting fees for digital MSK health start-up; payment for expert testimony from the College of Physiotherapists of Ontario; patents planned, issued, or pending for a panel of blood markers to detect ‘risk’ of chronic pain after MSK trauma – including but not specific to the neck; stock or stock options in TSX stocks; other financial support as a co-author of a book on musculoskeletal pain from Handspring Publishers; all outside the submitted work. A Woolf reports leadership or fiduciary roles in board, society, committee or advocacy groups, paid or unpaid with the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health as a co-chair; outside the submitted work.
(Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)