학술논문
Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example.
Document Type
Article
Source
Subject
*HYDROLOGIC models
*UNCERTAINTY
*SENSE organs
*FLOOD risk
*INTERDISCIPLINARY research
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Language
ISSN
0262-6667
Abstract
Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]