부산대학교 도서관

This paper presents an approach to estimate demand in the Polish Power System (PPS) using the historical electricity usage of 27 thousand commercial customers, observed between 2016 and 2020. The customer data were clustered and samples as well as features were created to build neural network models. The goal of this research is to analyze if the clustering of customers can help to explain demand in the PPS. Additionally, considering that the datasets available for commercial customers are typically much smaller, it was analyzed what a minimal sample size drawn from the clusters would have to be in order to accurately estimate demand in the PPS. The evaluation and experiments were conducted for each year separately; the results proved that, considering adjusted R2 and mean absolute percentage error, our clustering-based method can deliver a high accuracy in the load estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]