부산대학교 도서관

A correct assessment of the power held by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) should be made; then Arab leaders should be made aware that the limits to their power are perceived and will be incorporated into a U.S. policy aimed at developing an excess world production capacity. A repeat of the 1973--74 oil embargo and rapid price increase is not anticipated because of the economic-development goals of oil-producing countries. An embargo in which the Arabs cut production by an amount equal to U.S. imports would be ineffective because world prices would rise and supplies would become available to the U.S. A strategic petroleum stockpile would eliminate the psychological impact of an embargo threat and make production or shipping interruptions unprofitable. Economic and political interdependence also decrease the probability of a future embargo.